We won't really know for some time yet, but since I am trying (very hard) to support the surge (even though I thought a change of tactics was all that was needed), I wanted to make note of (at least) two positive signs thus far that have come out of Iraq since the President began implementing his new strategy. 

The U.S. military has announced that the radical cleric Al Sadr, who heads the Mehdi army, has fled to Iran.  This is both positive and negative.  For one, it shows that operations in and around Baghdad have been at least somewhat effective, since Al Sadr no longer feels safe in Iraq.  The negatives are obvious:  He cannot be definitively captured or killed, or tried for ordering ethnic cleansing in Baghdad neighborhoods.  Also, he can continue to funnel propoganda into Iraq from his safehaven in Iran. 

The second positive sign:  The Mehdi army is re-integrating back into the public life amidst crackdowns by both the Iraqi and U.S. forces.  A top aide to Al Sadr was recently captured in these crackdowns.  The militia's weapons are being hidden and its members are returning to their homes to ride out the renewed American furvor.  In the mean time, we can use this as an opportunity to capture them and perhaps find their weapons caches, in a situation where they should become increasingly vulnerable as the crackdowns continue.  Iraqis recently arrested 400 Mehdi army members, which shows the government in Iraq is now committed to crossing ethnic lines in order to bring about general peace within Iraq.  All of this signals that at least the change in tactics, if not the surge itself, is helping to bring about initial change in Iraq.  Let's hope these positive signs continue.